3.7 Total Fertility Rate

What is Total Fertility Rate?

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is the average number of children a woman would have during her reproductive years (roughly ages 15-44), assuming current age-specific birth rates remain constant. It's a key predictor of future population growth. High TFR countries tend to be developing nations; low TFR countries are often industrialized.

Replacement-level fertility

Replacement-level fertility is the TFR needed to keep a population stable (not growing or shrinking) from generation to generation, generally about 2.1 children per woman in developed countries. The extra 0.1 accounts for children who don't survive to reproductive age or don't reproduce. Below this, populations may eventually decline.

Factors that lower TFR

TFR tends to decrease with increased education and employment opportunities for women, greater access to contraception/family planning, urbanization, delayed marriage, higher costs of raising children, and government policies limiting family size. As countries develop economically, TFR typically falls, following patterns seen in the demographic transition model.

Key terms

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

The average number of children a woman would have during her reproductive years, based on current birth rates.

Replacement-level fertility

The TFR needed to keep population size stable across generations, about 2.1 in developed countries.

Factors that decrease TFR

Education/career opportunities for women, access to contraception, urbanization, delayed marriage, higher child-rearing costs.

TFR above replacement level

Indicates a growing population, common in developing countries with high birth rates.

TFR below replacement level

Indicates a population that may eventually decline, common in many industrialized nations.

Try an AP-style question

What is the approximate replacement-level fertility in developed countries?

1. 2.1
2. 1.0
3. 5.0
4. 3.5